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Early Bird Members \;= £\;250+VAT\nEarly Bird Non-Members \;= £\;375*+VAT\n\n<
strong>Regular \;Members \;= £\;290+VAT\n Regular \;Non-Members** \;= £\;415*+VAT

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\n*Due to a lack of access to the live sessions\, the recordin g-only tickets are offered at a reduced price to reflect this:

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\nTo s ecure your access to this Course\, please

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For the most part the planning of clinical trials is based o
n considerations of the power of a test of a given alternative hypothesis
based on ideas introduced by Neyman and Pearson in 1933. As early as 1939\
, Jeffreys pointed out that if the true value was unknown\, so was the pow
er. Jeffreys suggested that to understand the true power of a study the co
nditional power values should be averaged with respect to their prior prob
abilities\, an unconditional power. This idea was taken up in the 1980&rsq
uo\;s by Spiegelhalter and colleagues and in the early 2000s by O&rsquo\;H
agan and Stevens who introduced the concept of assurance. \; All of th
is work uses unconditional as opposed to conditional probabilities. \;

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\nThe course is based on a book with the same title in the C
hapman Hall/CRC Biostatistics Series to appear in May 2022. All participan
ts for this course will receive a copy of the book.

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\n**Topics covered include**:

\n&bull\; Expected Power\, Average Power (AP)\, Predicted P
ower\, Probability of Success and Assurance for a Simple Normal Model with
Known Variance

\n \; \; \; \;Bounds on AP and Assura
nce

\n \; \; Sample Size for a Given AP/Assurance and Normal
ized Assurance. \;

\n \; \; Applying Assurance to a Seri
es of Studies

\n \; \; Assurance for a Clinical Trial with a
Single Interim Analysis

\n \; \; Non-Inferiority Trials

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\n&bull\; AP in Non-Normal Settings &ndash\; Unknown variance\,
Binary Data\, Survival Analysis

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\n&bull\; Bayesian Power (BP)

\n \; \; Bounds on BP \;

\n \; \; Sample
Size for a Given BP/Normalized BP \; \;

\n \; \; Pos
terior Conditional Success Distributions

\n \; \; Prior Dist
ributions for Power and sample Size

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\n&bull\; Interim Predict
ions and Links to AP

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\n&bull\; AP with Multiple Decision Crit
eria &ndash\; Normal Model with Known Variance

\n \; \; Boun
ds on AP and Assurance

\n \; \; Generalized Assurance

\
n \; \; Bayesian Approach to Multiple Decision Criteria.

\n&
nbsp\; \; Posterior Conditional GO/NOGO/Pause/Distributions

\n**\n&bull\; Surety and Assurance in Estimation\n \; \; An
Alternative to Power in sample Size Determination\n \; \;
Unconditional Sample Sizing Based on CI width**

**Session 1:-** \;Monday 4th July | 09:30-12:00<
br />\n**Session 2:-** \;Wednesday 6th July | 10:00-12:00

\n**Session 3:-** \;Friday 8th July | 10:00-12:00**\n\n**

\n*Disclaime
r\nPSI is a non-profit organisation run by volunteers. Many of the e
vent organisers and presenters donate their time\, while the majority of t
he event registration cost is spent on administrative support\, venue rent
al / online conferencing\, travel costs for the presenter\, software licen
ces\, and general running of the society. PSI strives to offer high qualit
y courses\, but cannot offer a guarantee that the content presented is acc
urate or fit for your particular needs. Please check if any software is re
quired for this course and ensure you are able to run it prior to register
ing.\n\nCancellation and Moderation Terms\n*